What will 10,000 be worth in 20 years?
At 7.5% a year, a single 10,000 investment becomes roughly 42,500 in twenty years. The scenario chart below shows how wide the realistic range around that figure is.
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One number, three futures
A four-point swing in average annual return changes a twenty-year outcome by more than double. That is not a rounding error, and it is why single-point projections should always be read alongside a range.
Use the weak scenario for any plan with a fixed obligation attached to it, and treat the strong one as upside rather than expectation.
Remember what inflation takes
42,500 in twenty years is not 42,500 of today's money. At 2.5% inflation it buys roughly what 26,000 buys now. The retirement calculator shows this effect directly if you want to see it charted.
Real returns - after inflation - are the only ones that matter for planning. A 7.5% nominal return with 2.5% inflation is about 5% real.
Frequently asked questions
What return should I assume over 20 years?
Long-run nominal returns on broad developed-market equity have averaged in the high single digits, but twenty-year periods have varied widely. Test more than one figure.
Is it better to invest a lump sum or spread it out?
Historically, investing sooner has won more often, because the money spends longer in the market. Spreading it out reduces regret risk.
What about tax?
The projection is pre-tax. Tax-advantaged accounts, where available, meaningfully improve the net result.
How much of the result is inflation?
At 2.5% over twenty years, prices rise about 64%, so roughly a third of the headline figure is absorbed.
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